Oct 2 | SepT Jobs Report

Updated: Oct 19, 2020

The September Jobs Report has been released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and it just further proves the need for relief. This is the last report before the election. The full report from BLS is here.

Key Takeaways:

Job Recovery is Clearly Slowing without Relief.

We lost 22 million jobs when COVID hit.

The economy has so far recovered

4.8 million jobs in June,

1.8 million in July

1.5 million in Aug

and only 661,000 in Sept.

This is a clear downward trend in job recovery and we are still short over 10.7 million jobs from February's pre-pandemic numbers.

According to the EPI, We are actually in a jobs deficit of over 12 millions jobs when you take into account the jobs that should have been added in 2020 were we not in a major recession.

Less Jobs were Recovered than Experts Predicted.

Even with the slowing trend from above,

800,000 jobs were predicted to be recovered in September.

We only recovered 661,000.

So not only is recovery slowing, it is slowing even more rapidly than was previously projected due to lack of relief and the virus not being reigned in.

The EPI says at this pace and with no federal relief it will take YEARS to recover all of the jobs lost due to the pandemic.

More Job Loss is Coming

Nearly a quarter million of the jobs "recovered" in September—247,000—were temporary jobs related to the census that will disappear in the next few months.

Plus more layoffs are coming without relief.

Disney just laid off 28,000 workers.

All State car insurance laid of 3800

Airlines have begun massive layoffs of thousands of people.

The government sector actually lost more jobs in September, primarily due to cuts to education jobs. (What?!)

Without federal aid to state and local governments, 5.3 million workers will likely lose their jobs by the end of 2021

The number of permanent job losses rose - again - by 345k to 3.8m.

3.8 million jobs have disappeared and are not coming back.

Long Term Unemployment is at an all-time high

7.3 million workers have been unemployed for at least 15 weeks and 2.4 million have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer.

In September, there was a large increase in those with long term unemployment, up 781,000 in one month.

This is a significant problem considering the fact that PEUC/PUA are expiring at the end of December and so the increasing number of people stuck in long term unemployment will lose all assistance.

These numbers don't even include everyone

We know we say this every jobs report, but it is worth restating, these unemployment numbers DO NOT calculate people who may be temporarily unemployed or people who were dropped from the labor force numbers altogether because they are "not actively seeking work". 

People who qualify as "not actively seeking work" are millions who are not able to seek work because of COVID. These people aren't being counted. During a pandemic, this number is unusually high. It is unwise and unjust to legislate based on incomplete numbers.

Labor force participation fell in September to 61.4%.

(Again, unemployment rates are only calculated based on this 61.4% of the population)

This fall in labor force participation suggests that many Americans are giving up looking for work because they are discouraged that there isn't a job for them or because they are unable to balance work and childcare.

Due to the latter problem and systemic gender inequality, this is disproportionately affecting women.

865k women "dropped out" of the labor force, while only 216K men did.